You will find links to many indepe** filmmakers selling VHS copies of their films that have not yet gotten **ercial release. None of the filmmakers represented on the site have DVD product available, but here's hoping. DVD Reviews and more. DVD King does the retail thing these days selling DVDs. 75 days for the Metaculus predictive horizon. Overall, I like the logistic fit much better than the expo**ial one: in practice, we know that forecasters don't give quasi-random predictions for questions that are further out than 100 days (or, as the PredictionBook fit suggests, that forecasting is impossible!).

I also try to find out how far humans ** look into the future, leading to various different results. A priori, one would believe that beliefs about the near future are generally more accurate than beliefs about the far future: We ** predict the weather in 2 minutes far better than the weather in 6 months, we ** say much more about the position of a rock in an hour than in 100 years, more about the popularity of a political party in 2 months as opposed to 10 years.

Keeping with Muehlhauser 2019, I define short-term forecasts as forecasts with a range of less than a year, mid-range forecasts as forecasts with a range between 1 and 10 years, and long-term forecasts as forecasts with a range of more than 10 years (this distinction is not **tral to the following analysis, though).

4. In most cases, no **parison to a "baseline method" or "null model" is possible, casino games integration which makes it difficult to assess how easy or difficult the **inal forecasts were. 60 times shorter than in the **inal finding. I believe that the finding for the PredictionBook data is quite surprising. I wonder whether the reason the Metaculus fit reaches the Metaculus data so much faster is because the Metaculus data ends earlier?

(Also, yes, that is the logistic function and not a linear funct**r the PredictionBook data, custom casino software it's a really moderate slope). The red graphs stands for Metaculus sample sizes, the blue graph stands for PredictionBook sample sizes. However, below I check the correlation of range and forecast accuracy between questions, and find that they are negatively correlated, and furthermore find that they are positively related within questions, which strongly indicates that the effect probably **es from questions with a long range receiving more accurate predictions (in the PredictionBook dataset).

This ** be partially, but not **pletely, explained by the fact that questions with a longer range receive more accurate forecasts (more).

First we have to rewrite the code that groups the forecasts by question. In order to do this, one ** **pute the Brier score for each prediction, and then perform one linear regression/**pute the correlation per question to discern whether the relation is positive or casino payment integration not. In this text, I will try to look at the accuracy of short-term and casino games integration mid-term forecasting, which may shine some light on the relation between the range of forecasts and their accuracy in general.